‘Regulators Must Understand That Absolute Predictability is Unattainable’

Photo: raqobat.gov.uz

On October 10–11, 2025, the BRICS Competition Law and Policy Centre at HSE University (the BRICS Centre) hosted a two-day international seminar, ‘Platform Economy: Competition Law and the Market Power of Digital Platforms,’ in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The event brought together competition authorities from BRICS+ nations and leading antitrust experts from around the world.

Co-organised with Uzbekistan’s Competition Promotion and Consumer Protection Committee and the Competition Policy and Consumer Rights Research Centre, the seminar focused on a wide range of pressing issues. These included best practices for regulating competition in digital markets, the impact of artificial intelligence on platform power, and the unique challenges of assessing ecosystem mergers amid ongoing digital transformation.

With its rapidly growing economy, Uzbekistan is attracting a diverse range of players, from global monopolists to large regional companies. This dynamic has created a pressing need for fair digital market regulation and vigilance against monopolistic practices on digital platforms. Khalilillo Turakhujaev, Chair of the Competition Promotion and Consumer Protection Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, stressed the critical nature of these challenges.

HSE University Vice Rector Alexey Koshel noted that the platform economy is a significant driver of employment and accounts for more than 5% of Russia’s GDP. He argued, however, that effective regulation of digital platforms demands international cooperation, noting the limited ability of any single nation to tackle the issue alone.

Alexey Koshel

Photo by HSE University

‘Despite the many advantages of the digital economy, it is clear that every country faces significant challenges in developing an effective approach to regulating digital platforms and ecosystems. This is especially true given the need to address the negative effects of digitalisation on competition,’ said Alexey Koshel. ‘That’s why a representative group like today’s—bringing together scientists and heads of relevant departments from leading countries—is so important.’

Alexey Ivanov, Director of the BRICS Centre, called for joint efforts to regulate digital markets more effectively. He noted that there is currently no systematic approach to assessing global mergers in the digital space. The complexity of these transactions makes it difficult for antitrust authorities in BRICS countries to fully understand the underlying economic strategies. To address this, the BRICS Centre has launched an initiative to create a shared platform for knowledge exchange and merger coordination.

‘At the BRICS level, our antitrust authorities have reached an agreement to create a platform tentatively named Merger Radar,’ said Alexey Ivanov. ‘This is a project the centre is now developing. Its key element will be an analytical tool to better monitor market trends and align theories of harm, which will help in formulating effective legal measures. Current approaches to regulating global digital mergers often fall short in these areas.’

Alexey Ivanov (on the right)

Photo by HSE University

Alexey Ivanov described the modern market as a chaotic and poorly predictable environment. ‘Those who manage to navigate it successfully sometimes do so purely by chance,’ he said. ‘This differs radically from the industrial era, where growth, revenue, and efficiency were the result of a clear strategy, expertise, and planning.’

This also applies to antitrust regulation. Today, regulators must understand that absolute predictability is unattainable. Instead, they should focus on preparing for reasonable risks and developing effective responses to them. The prevailing approach of ‘not overdoing’ or ‘avoiding stifling innovation’ may have been helpful in the past, but it is now due for a rethink.

Regulators, especially in the digital age, need to be more flexible and entrepreneurial. Markets can adapt to interventions, which can sometimes act as a catalyst for growth. It is important to move away from excessive caution and recognise that, in some cases, the risk of underregulation may be greater than the risk of overregulation, Alexey Ivanov concluded.

According to Jia Yang, Deputy Head of the Merger and Acquisitions Research Department at China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), the country has implemented a permanent monitoring system for digital platforms and their operations. This is enabled by Article 19 of the Anti-Monopoly Regulations for the Platform Economy, which establishes the legal grounds for proactive investigations by regulators.

‘Even if the concentration of operators does not reach the established notification thresholds, but the facts and evidence collected in accordance with the established procedure indicate a possible negative impact on competition, the antitrust authority is obliged to initiate an investigation in accordance with the law,’ emphasised Alexey Ivanov.

The speakers noted that AI is transforming markets and increasing concentration. For example, search engine algorithms amplify the advantages of companies that already possess large datasets. Maksim Yermalovich, Minister of Competition and Antitrust Regulation of the Eurasian Economic Commission, stressed that it is especially important for countries to begin establishing specialised units to study the processes in the digital environment.

Maksim Yermalovich

Photo: raqobat.gov.uz

‘We need professionals who can analyse the algorithms used by aggregators. More importantly, we need to understand the logic of these algorithms, model their behaviour using real data, and evaluate their effects. Some of these effects remain unclear: we see the consequences, but we cannot always establish a clear cause-and-effect relationship. What is also alarming is that consumers themselves often do not realise they are in a disadvantaged position,’ he pointed out.

Mahmoud Momtaz, Chairman of the Egyptian Competition Authority, agreed, noting that regulators must study AI algorithms to apply them independently in their own work—for instance, to detect collusion.

Continuing the topic, Ioannis Lianos, Professor of Law at University College London, UK (and former President of the Hellenic Competition Commission), noted that the development of self-learning algorithms and large language models (LLMs) increases the risk of implicit collusion between AI systems, which poses serious challenges for existing legislation. As potential solutions, he proposed expanding the legal definitions of collusion, conducting preventive audits of algorithms, and deploying technological tools to support investigations (sub-tech). ‘In one of the largest bank charges cases, trained neural networks helped us analyse thousands of emails obtained during a search. This made it possible to cut investigation costs by 96% and speed up the evidence-gathering process,’ said Ioannis Lianos.

Jia Kai, an associate professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, noted that the digital economy is moving towards a new model in which users interact with services through personal AI agents. These agents automatically perform everyday tasks—such as ordering coffee and processing payments—replacing traditional applications. This represents a transition from the platform economy to an AI agent-based economy.

‘Who will be the subject of regulation in the future—the agent or the platform? If it is the agent, we face a significant challenge. AI is difficult to interpret, often non-transparent, and lacks clear causal relationships. This poses a serious obstacle for regulation and antitrust policy,’ the speaker emphasised. On the other hand, another scenario is possible: agents may not replace platforms and people but rather augment them by performing routine or professional tasks. The future of competition and regulation will depend on which path development takes—towards full agent autonomy or their integration into the existing digital ecosystem.

Many developing countries are only beginning to formulate their approaches to regulating digital markets while simultaneously facing new challenges related to AI development. Various models are being discussed, including pre-regulation (ex-ante), post-violation regulation (ex-post), and soft law instruments. Akari Yamamoto, an official in the Competition and Consumer Policies Branch at UNCTAD, advises young antitrust authorities to start by understanding the fundamentals of AI and the available regulatory options.

‘Rather than pursuing complex reforms, it is better to proceed gradually, utilising soft law mechanisms, recommendations, and market research alongside existing legislation. Furthermore, the exchange of experience between countries can be extremely beneficial, especially in regions with similar market structures. In developing regions, local digital platforms can have an impact comparable to that of global technology giants. Regional cooperation helps to better understand common challenges and find effective solutions,’ concluded Akari Yamamoto.