‘We Grow Old before We Become Rich’: How BRICS Countries Can Achieve Economic Growth
Due to population aging, many countries aiming for economic prosperity have limited time left to undergo economic transformation, according to the honorary report Narratives Versus Reality on Employment and Demography: How Undermining Institutions Can Push Countries Out of the ‘Narrow Corridor’ by Santosh Mehrotra of the University of Bath. The report was presented at the XXV Yasin (April) International Academic Conference.
Many high-income nations had 200 years to undergo large-scale transformations, whereas today’s aspiring economies have less than 100 years to achieve similar growth. According to Mehrotra, climate change is also constraining countries' ability to achieve rapid economic growth. 'We need to generate wealth faster than countries did in the past. If we had a younger population and a larger workforce, there would be less cause for concern. However, we risk squandering our demographic dividend if countries fail to provide decent livelihoods for their citizens. Europe grew old after becoming rich, while we are growing old before we become rich. This puts even more pressure on states,' he said.
Santosh Mehrotra
According to Santosh Mehrotra, in light of an aging population, many countries are grappling with how to meet financial obligations and ensure the effectiveness of their healthcare systems. 'These are serious challenges, made worse by the high prevalence of informal employment in many countries,' said Santosh Mehrotra. While informal employment accounts for 21.2% of the workforce in Russia, it reaches 35.1% in South Africa, 47.9% in Brazil, 54.4% in China, and exceeds 88.1% in India, he noted. According to Mehrotra, many people in informal employment lack access to any social guarantees.
As part of his report, Santosh Mehrotra also highlighted the overhaul of the trading system that began during Donald Trump’s presidency, noting that it could lead to higher inflation and a global recession. 'The democratic United States becoming an unreliable partner is bad for the entire world. We must begin challenging the dominance of the United States in all areas,' he said, adding that the BRICS countries must continue to actively pursue collaborative projects.
According to Santosh Mehrotra, to achieve economic growth, countries must implement sound macroeconomic policies, maintain open markets, strengthen institutions, and actively invest in education. 'The quality of human capital is crucial for growth. The emergence of technical innovations and productivity growth depend on what investments have been made in human capital,' he concluded.
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